The market saw notable divergence between prompt and forward contracts. Spot
gas eased to a three-week low through the week as Norwegian maintenance
began unwinding, the Ichthys LNG strike was averted following progress in pay
negotiations, and a record UK May heatwave drove demand destruction with solar
generation running near maximum (the UK recorded its hottest May day ever at
34.8°C).
Forward contracts held firmer and in some cases ticked higher, supported by
QatarEnergy extending its LNG force majeure to mid-August, fresh US “selfdefense strikes” on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of
Hormuz, and mixed signals on the ceasefire after the White House dismissed
Iranian reports of a draft deal as a “complete fabrication.” Carbon allowances
strengthened independently of gas, lending support to forward power despite the
easier gas picture. Iran’s IRGC threatened retaliation for the latest strikes, and the
structural supply backdrop, with UK gas storage still very low and EU storage
tracking near a 5-year low for this point in the injection season, continues to limit
how far the curve can fall ahead of next winter’s restocking window.
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