The conflict escalated sharply as fresh Iranian missile strikes on Ras
Laffan destroyed two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, with QatarEnergy
confirming 17% of export capacity will be offline for three to five years,
a structural loss of 12.8 million tonnes per annum now priced across
the entire forward curve. UK gas surged past 150p per therm, up over
120% on the month, with Cal-27 jumping 20% in a single session as
the crisis extends well beyond 2026. Summer-winter spreads have
flipped into premium for both 2026 and 2027, reflecting deep concern
over Europe’s ability to restock ahead of next winter.
Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to destroy Iranian
power plants if the Strait is not reopened, before extending the
deadline by five days today. Iran warned it would completely close the
Strait and target Gulf energy infrastructure in retaliation, while the IEA
described the crisis as worse than the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. No
diplomatic off-ramp is visible.