Gas and power continued to ease through most of the week as the US-Iran framework
deal held and bearish supply signals built. The US authorized Iranian oil sales under a
temporary 60-day licence on Monday, Qatar’s prime minister signalled LNG production
would return to normal within weeks apart from the damaged Ras Laffan facility, and
several empty Qatari LNG carriers entered the Gulf to reload.
Norwegian flows recovered to strong levels, while NBP day-ahead hit its weakest since
February by Thursday, with Winter-26 at its lowest since mid-April. Hot weather and low
wind across Europe propped up power-sector demand and limited the move in baseload,
with French nuclear curtailment from high river temperatures adding further support.
The picture turned over the weekend as US forces struck Iranian military targets in
response to a drone attack on the M/V Ever Lovely, Iran retaliated with strikes on USlinked sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the IRGC threatened to halt all diplomatic
processes if attacks continue. The curve opened slightly higher this morning on the
renewed escalation, though the move has been measured rather than the sharp gap
higher seen during earlier flare-ups.