The MoU signed electronically by Trump and Pezeshkian on Wednesday delivered
the most significant bearish move in the gas and power curves since the conflict
began, with NBP gas posting its largest weekly decline of the war and power
following. Both Summer-26 and Winter-26 unwound much of the conflict premium
built up since late February. The move was reinforced by strong Norwegian exit
nominations, warm weather cutting UK demand, robust solar output mid-week,
and the first meaningful return of Hormuz traffic with 25 commercial vessels
crossing on 18 June, the highest since mid-April.
Support came from European storage still well below last year, persistent UK
nuclear outages across Heysham, Hartlepool, Torness and Sizewell B, and French
nuclear curtailment as heatwave river temperatures lifted. Carbon firmed against
the broader trend. The picture turned again late Saturday as Iran announced the
Strait was closed citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a breach of the agreement,
with the curve reversing higher at this morning’s open. Markets remain headlinesensitive, with the 60-day negotiating window far from a guaranteed path to
permanent peace.